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Avian flu outbreak to hit Jan. poultry sales: Crisil

The bird flu outbreak in India could impact poultry sales by a third this month, but the industry will likely bounce back in quick time, with profitability intact for the full fiscal. This has been indicated by Crisil’s analysis of 87 poultry companies, which account for 30% of the industry’s revenue.

The flu has led to reduction of about 30% of broiler chicken volumes, bringing down the daily chicken demand in India from 100 lakh kg in December 2020 to an estimated 70 lakh kg in January 2021, Crisil said.

Additionally, wholesale prices of broiler chicken have crashed 20-30% from ₹105-110 per kg in December to ₹80 per kg. Given this, overall revenue could decline 30-40% in January 2021 due to a fall in realisations and volume, Crisil said.

Since wholesale prices usually correct sharply following such outbreaks, the fall in prices would be temporary, it added.

“The impact of the outbreak on the industry will depend on its intensity and duration,” Dinesh Jain, Director, Crisil Ratings, said.


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